Why BJP Fails To Conquer The South?

Although the Bharatiya Janata Party became a central force in national politics, it could not build a strong base anywhere in the south except in Karnataka. 

During the Modi regime, the BJP expanded not only in the eastern, western, and northern states but also in the northeast. But in the south, Modi has not been able to achieve significant success.

Before Modi and Amit Shah came, Karnataka was ruled by the BJP. The people of Karnataka secured 26 seats for Modi in the last Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka. The BJP lost power there when they ignored the local leaders.

Political analysts believe that the BJP is not likely to get as many seats as it did in the last Lok Sabha elections; at least 10-15 seats will be reduced in the coming Parliament elections.

In Tamil Nadu, the BJP has been aggressive and has lost cordial relation with its supporter AIADMK. Even the BJP is not familiar with Tamil Nadu politics. Periyar and the Dravidian movement took root there. There is deep-seated protest among the people against orthodox fundamentalism.

The sense of Tamil supremacy and caste politics turned against the northern parties there. It was not easy for Modi to entertain Tamil people with some activities like Kashi Tamil Sangam and Sengol. BJP has no chance of getting more than 2 seats in Tamil Nadu in coming elections.

It is not possible for the BJP to enter Kerala in the near future. Local political observers said that even if Union Ministers are fielded from there this time it will be difficult to get even one seat.

In the last elections the BJP tried to take advantage with a divide and rule policy between Christian and Muslim communities there. But these two factions politically together and are ready to defeat the BJP now. 

It is true that the BJP has gained some momentum in Telangana after Modi came to power. The lack of strength of the Congress to face the loose rule of KCR has given the BJP some strength. BJP won GHMC elections and one or two assembly elections.

But Modi and Amit Shah have proved that they have no political knowledge about Telangana. There the party president Bandi Sanjay was removed and a mild-mannered Kishan Reddy was appointed as the party leader.

When the BJP weakened, the Congress under the leadership of Revanth Reddy gained strength, and now it is doubtful whether the BJP will win even the 4 seats it won in Telangana in the Lok Sabha.

BJP has no real vote bank in Andhra Pradesh. Although it depended on Chandrababu Naidu for a while he turned his back on Modi and quit the NDA in 2019. He also said unspeakable words to Modi. Strangely, the BJP which once suffered a setback at the hands of Chandrababu agreed to an alliance now.

The situation is so weak for BJP in AP that it may not light any sparks. BJP is contesting in 6 MP and 10 MLA seats as a part of alliance. 

On a whole it depicts how BJP high command is weak in understanding the political dynamics, mood and sentiment of the public and the role of media in the Southern states. Unless it masters in these aspects, it is very difficult to make Lotus bloom in the Southern states. 

Senthil Subramaniam