Rahul boasts about defeating BJP in Gujarat but are his claims far-fetched?

Congress MP Rahul Gandhi, on a visit to Ahmedabad in Gujarat on Saturday, reiterated his claims of defeating the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the next Assembly elections and said that the ‘latter will meet the same fate in 2027 polls akin to Ayodhya.’ 

Rahul’s combative remarks came while addressing the workers at the party office in Ahmedabad, days after clashes between Congress and BJP members in the city on July 2.

The altercation reportedly broke out after BJP youth wing members assembled outside its office to protest against Rahul’s comment on Hindus.

The Rae Bareli MP in a frontal attack on the Prime Minister and BJP said that the way they damaged our offices, we will dislodge them from power in 2027.

“Likh kar le lo, we will defeat PM Modi and the BJP, much like the way we did it in Ayodhya,| Rahul told party workers on Saturday.

The Leader of the Opposition (LoP) in Lok Sabha made a similar pitch during his address in the lower House, last week and asserted that Congress will show the door to BJP in its Gujarat bastion, in the 2017 Assembly elections.

Political experts see it as Congress’ tactical attempt to pile up pressure on the BJP and prolong the ‘victory perception’ that it has gained after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The party hopes to gain greater political mileage by cornering the ruling dispensation on issues related to youth, women and the armed forces.

The ensuing Assembly elections, later this year, will show whether such an aggressive and confrontational strategy yields a return or backfires for the party.

However, putting the Gujarat electoral numbers in perspective, it looks fairly clear that the Congress leader’s claims are too ambitious and far-fetched.

Notably, Gujarat has been the biggest stronghold of the BJP, with the latter winning the past seven consecutive elections by a decisive margin. Narendra Modi served as the Gujarat Chief Minister from 2001 to 2014, before becoming Prime Minister.

The Gujarat Assembly has 182 seats. The last 2022 Assembly elections saw a mega BJP sweep with the party romping home with 156 seats and Congress getting reduced to mere 17 seats. BJP amassed over 52 per cent vote share while Congress and AAP managed to get 27 and 13 per cent votes respectively.

In recent memory, the 2017 Assembly elections were the only one where Congress gave a tough fight to BJP by registering its best-ever performance in over two decades. It won 77 seats while BJP garnered 99 seats.

Addressing the party workers in Gujarat, Rahul asked them to prepare for a fight akin to the 2017 elections and ‘teach them a lesson’ in 2027.

“In 2017, we fought for just three to four months and you saw the outcome. We almost brought it to the mat in three months, today we have three years to prepare. A new Congress will emerge from Gujarat,” said Rahul.

However, this is not his first 'prophecy' for Gujarat. A viral social media post shows Rahul’s three assertions where he vowed to dislodge the BJP from power in the Assembly elections of 2017, 2022 and Lok Sabha polls of 2024.

In the latest Parliamentary elections too, Congress was made to bite the dust. BJP swept the state with a landslide victory and huge vote share while the INDIA alliance’s only claim to fame remained its victory in 1 seat – Banaskantha.

Therefore, Rahul may be boasting and bragging about the party’s prospects in Gujarat, buoyed by the recent performance of the INDIA alliance, but in reality, the claims look from reality, for now.