How Long Will BJP Keep Shinde and Ajit Pawar?

In Maharashtra’s political chessboard, the BJP’s alliance with Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar appears increasingly transactional. Observers speculate how much longer the BJP will rely on these alliances before reducing their political relevance.

Maharashtra’s Political Math

• The Maharashtra Assembly has 288 seats, with a majority requiring 145 seats.
• BJP currently has 132 MLAs, Shinde's Shiv Sena faction has 57, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP group controls 41.
• As per the BJP’s arrangement, the Chief Minister seat is retained by BJP, while Shinde and Ajit Pawar hold Deputy CM positions.

Shinde’s Diminishing Role

Shinde’s political journey has been marked by constant adjustments under BJP’s dominance. Initially, Shinde was elevated to the CM position after breaking away from Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena, but his authority has remained limited.

• Challenges for Shinde:
  Despite holding the CM post earlier, Shinde has faced marginalization. Reports suggest that even significant decisions bypassed him, with BJP leaders and Fadnavis directly handling matters with Delhi. Such instances have caused frustration, but Shinde has had little choice but to comply.

• BJP’s View on Shinde:
  For BJP, Shinde’s current political worth may already be exhausted. With Shinde's MLAs more inclined toward BJP’s fold, his relevance diminishes. If BJP merges Shinde's faction, his position as a leader may shrink further, reducing his political stature to a mere formality.

Ajit Pawar’s Strategic Compliance

Ajit Pawar’s inclusion in the BJP alliance was a bold gamble. Despite his history of corruption allegations, his alignment with BJP ensured protection from legal troubles and a political lifeline.

• BJP's Approach to Ajit:
  While Ajit Pawar currently serves as a Deputy CM, there are murmurs within BJP about phasing him out. Pawar's political standing depends heavily on staying in BJP’s good graces, as his faction's MLA strength may not sustain him independently.

The Road Ahead for Shinde and Ajit

Both leaders face uncertain futures.

1. For Shinde: His influence is steadily waning, and even retaining the Deputy CM position could render him politically inconsequential. Some advisors suggest seeking a central government role or a convenor position in the alliance as a strategic retreat.
2. For Ajit Pawar: His survival hinges on his continued utility to the BJP. A faction within the BJP reportedly views Ajit as expendable once his political value diminishes.

By the next elections, the BJP may likely sideline both leaders, ensuring that their political relevance fades. As BJP consolidates power, Shinde and Ajit’s roles in Maharashtra politics could become minor footnotes, with their earlier prominence reduced to mere mentions in history.