BJP's Plan B in Tamil Nadu: A New Strategy Ahead of Elections

With a year left for the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, political activity in the state has already intensified. Since BJP's previous strategies to establish a foothold in Tamil Nadu did not yield the desired results, discussions have begun about a new approach by the party. The BJP is reportedly formulating a plan to unseat the ruling DMK, either directly or indirectly. Speculations suggest that the party is even considering a Plan B to achieve its objective.

In Tamil Nadu, Lok Sabha and Assembly elections are held separately. While the Assembly elections were conducted in 2021, the Lok Sabha elections took place two and a half years later, in 2024. The election outcomes have often favored either the ruling party or the opposition alliance at different times. Despite a three-way contest in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the DMK performed beyond expectations and secured a sweeping victory. BJP's attempts to gain prominence in the state, both in the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections, have so far been unsuccessful.

In the 2021 Assembly elections, BJP allied with AIADMK, but the partnership proved disadvantageous for both parties. AIADMK chief and former Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami openly admitted that the alliance with BJP cost them dearly. As a result, BJP contested the 2024 parliamentary elections with its own alliance but failed to secure a significant victory.

The Complex Political Landscape in Tamil Nadu

Tamil Nadu has a unique political environment with over a hundred active political parties. Most alliances here consist of at least ten parties, and even a minimum of five parties forming a coalition is common. The Dravidian identity holds strong sentimental value in Tamil Nadu politics. Traditionally, parties such as DMK (led by Karunanidhi) and AIADMK (led by Jayalalithaa) have leveraged this sentiment to consolidate their voter base. Even after the passing of their leaders, these parties have continued to rely on coalitions to contest elections.

BJP has long aspired to establish a strong presence in Tamil Nadu. The party won a single seat in Kanyakumari in the 2014 elections but failed to open its account in 2019. In the 2021 Assembly elections, BJP secured four seats and has since focused on strengthening its presence. Former IPS officer K. Annamalai took voluntary retirement to lead the BJP in Tamil Nadu and has aggressively promoted Hindutva ideology while challenging Dravidian politics. However, despite his efforts, BJP has not been able to translate its popularity into electoral success.

BJP’s New Strategy: Plan B?

With the upcoming Assembly elections, BJP is determined to make a strong impact. In the recent Lok Sabha elections, BJP secured 10% of the votes, while AIADMK got 20%. BJP is now reportedly considering an alliance with actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) along with other parties like PMK, which has significant support among the Vanniyar community.

However, since the AIADMK-BJP alliance failed in 2021, some believe that reuniting might not be the best option. In such a scenario, BJP is exploring Plan B, which involves supporting a strong anti-DMK alliance without directly being part of it. The idea is to bring together parties that are neither aligned with DMK nor AIADMK and consolidate their voter base.

There are also reports that BJP is working to bring together AIADMK’s fragmented factions, including leaders like Edappadi Palaniswami, O. Panneerselvam, and V.K. Sasikala, along with actor Vijay’s TVK, to form a strong coalition capable of challenging DMK.

While BJP may not come to power directly, this strategy could position the party favorably for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. If an AIADMK-led coalition comes to power in Tamil Nadu, BJP expects to benefit in the long run. Historically, DMK has always aligned with the Congress-led coalition and has remained a strong opponent of BJP. In contrast, AIADMK has previously collaborated with BJP on multiple occasions.

Given these factors, BJP appears to be strategically planning its moves to ensure DMK does not retain power in the state. Whether BJP adopts Plan A or Plan B, it is clear that Tamil Nadu politics is set for an intense and dynamic battle in the upcoming elections.