India's Youthful Advantage at Risk: Declining Fertility Rates Could Lead to Crisis
India, often celebrated as a youthful nation with the largest young population, may face a demographic shift in the coming decades. The "Young Bharat" of today could transform into an "Aging Bharat" by 2050. This trend, driven by declining fertility rates, poses challenges similar to those faced by countries like Japan and South Korea, where an aging population hinders economic growth and development.
Fertility Rate Decline: A Concern
Fertility rate measures the average number of children born to a woman during her reproductive years (15-49). In 1950, India’s fertility rate stood at 6.18. With overpopulation concerns leading to issues like food scarcity, India introduced family planning programs in 1951, emphasizing the "two-child" norm. As a result, the fertility rate declined steadily and has now dipped below the replacement level of 2.1 in most states.
Out of 36 states and union territories, 31 have fertility rates at or below the replacement level. Only Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Meghalaya, and Manipur exceed this threshold. As per government data (2019-21), India’s fertility rate dropped to 2.0, signaling a demographic shift.
The Looming Crisis
If the fertility rate continues to decline, it is projected to fall to 1.29 by 2050, according to a study published in The Lancet. This would result in:
- A significant rise in the elderly population.
- A shrinking workforce, leading to reduced economic growth.
- Increased strain on healthcare and pension systems.
Why Fertility Rates Are Dropping
Key factors contributing to the decline include:
- Rising living costs deterring young couples from having more than one child.
- Delayed marriages and family planning.
- Lifestyle changes, stress, and environmental factors leading to increased infertility.
The Path Forward
India’s current demographic advantage can still be leveraged if immediate steps are taken. Experts suggest policies to encourage larger families, provide financial support for child-rearing, and address infertility issues. By acting now, India can mitigate the impending demographic crisis and maintain its economic momentum.
In conclusion, while India's youthful population remains its strength today, the country must act promptly to ensure it doesn’t become a liability in the future.
